Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
